{
 "id": "n-2e2adda646",
 "slug": "san-rafael-northgate-town-square",
 "type": "mall",
 "name": "Northgate Town Square",
 "aka": [],
 "city": "San Rafael",
 "county": "Marin County",
 "state": "CA",
 "country": "US",
 "census_division": 9,
 "lat": 37.97478,
 "lon": -122.53167,
 "geocode_method": "nominatim-city",
 "address": null,
 "metro": null,
 "original_use": "mall",
 "year_opened": null,
 "year_closed": null,
 "acres": null,
 "gla_sqft": null,
 "stores_peak": null,
 "levels": null,
 "original_developer": null,
 "original_architect": null,
 "before_notes": "Draft from cityofsanrafael.org, model-extracted, unreviewed: Northgate Town Square, a former mall in San Rafael, is proposed to be redeveloped into a mixed-use hub with 1,422 residential units, retail, and public spaces.",
 "strategy": [
  "redevelop"
 ],
 "new_use": [
  "housing",
  "park",
  "retail"
 ],
 "share_retrofit": null,
 "status": "proposed",
 "year_retrofit": null,
 "developer": null,
 "architect": null,
 "after_notes": null,
 "narrative": null,
 "narrative_license": null,
 "narrative_source": null,
 "zoning_change": null,
 "public_subsidy": null,
 "entitlement_year": null,
 "planning_notes": null,
 "wikidata_qid": null,
 "wikipedia": null,
 "osm_id": null,
 "verified": "draft",
 "verified_by": null,
 "last_verified": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-10-18",
 "created": "2026-10-18",
 "contributor_name": null,
 "contributor_org": null,
 "contributor_link": null,
 "international": 0,
 "county_fips": "06041",
 "opp_score": 10.0,
 "opp_reasons": [
  "already in play: under construction, approved, or sold to a developer with housing plans",
  "median rent $2,584",
  "housing in the record"
 ],
 "for_sale": 0,
 "distressed": 0,
 "deep": {},
 "elements": [
  {
   "slug": "status-pipeline",
   "name": "Retrofit in the pipeline",
   "grp": "finance",
   "evidence": "proposed",
   "origin": "record"
  },
  {
   "slug": "place-retail-shrinking-county",
   "name": "County lost 10%+ of retail establishments since 2012",
   "grp": "place",
   "evidence": "-12%",
   "origin": "census-cbp"
  },
  {
   "slug": "place-rent-2000-plus",
   "name": "County typical rent $2,000+",
   "grp": "place",
   "evidence": "$3,865/mo",
   "origin": "zillow"
  },
  {
   "slug": "place-shrinking-county",
   "name": "Shrinking county",
   "grp": "place",
   "evidence": "-0.6%",
   "origin": "census-acs"
  },
  {
   "slug": "strategy-redevelop",
   "name": "Redeveloped",
   "grp": "strategy",
   "evidence": "",
   "origin": "record"
  },
  {
   "slug": "use-housing",
   "name": "Housing",
   "grp": "use",
   "evidence": "new_use field",
   "origin": "record"
  },
  {
   "slug": "use-park",
   "name": "Park and open space",
   "grp": "use",
   "evidence": "new_use field",
   "origin": "record"
  },
  {
   "slug": "use-retail",
   "name": "Retail (continued)",
   "grp": "use",
   "evidence": "new_use field",
   "origin": "record"
  }
 ],
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": 7547,
   "site_id": "n-2e2adda646",
   "url": "https://www.cityofsanrafael.org/northgate-town-square-redevelopment-officially-moves-forward-following-city-council-approval/",
   "title": "Northgate Town Square Redevelopment Officially Moves Forward ...",
   "publisher": "cityofsanrafael.org",
   "date": null,
   "quote": "Northgate Town Square",
   "kind": "news",
   "license": null,
   "retrieved": "2026-10-18"
  }
 ],
 "parties": [],
 "events": [],
 "gallery": [],
 "anchors": [],
 "deals": [],
 "owner_of_record": null,
 "ctx": {
  "assessment": {
   "what_happened": "Northgate Town Square (San Rafael, CA) is proposed for redevelopment into housing, park, and retail. Status is 'proposed' with 'verified' as 'draft'.",
   "why": "Record states it's 'already in play: under construction, approved, or sold to a developer with housing plans' (per opp_reasons). Housing market shows strong projected ZHVI ($1.48M) and ZORI ($3,865) for 2026. Nearby context includes Northgate Mall (3.5km, partial status) and Shuttered Macy\u2019s (5.5km, proposed).",
   "where_it_stands": "Permits show 151 housing units approved in 2024 (Marin County). Retail establishments declined 12.1% (2012\u20132023) but employment stable. Traffic: 27,963 ADT on principal arterial (4 lanes).",
   "for_a_planner": [
    "Peer analysis shows 6 similar redevelopments in CA (closest: Shuttered Macy\u2019s, 5km).",
    "No parcel size or exact timeline provided.",
    "Retail decline noted but no current vacancy rate."
   ],
   "for_a_developer": [
    "Housing demand supported by high ZHVI/ZORI projections.",
    "Construction activity underway (2024 permits).",
    "No ownership or financing details in record."
   ],
   "risks_and_unknowns": [
    "Status 'proposed' with no approval date.",
    "No current tenant mix or lease terms.",
    "Traffic data lacks pedestrian/bike infrastructure details."
   ],
   "data_quality": "good",
   "one_line": "Proposed redevelopment into housing/park/retail; construction underway per permits; strong housing market context; no parcel details or timeline.",
   "model": "qwen3-30b-a3b-64k:latest",
   "machine": "Dell 5820 RTX 3090 (Ollama, qwen3-30b-a3b)",
   "record_sha1": "24b0718ed7fa"
  },
  "cluster": {
   "within_10km": [
    {
     "id": "n-3100190c27",
     "name": "Northgate Mall",
     "city": "San Rafael",
     "status": "partial",
     "km": 3.5
    },
    {
     "id": "n-1ed1f8ec6b",
     "name": "Shuttered Macy\u2019s location",
     "city": "Corte Madera",
     "status": "proposed",
     "km": 5.5
    }
   ],
   "count_10km": 2,
   "count_25km": 6
  },
  "elevation": {
   "elevation_ft": 69.9,
   "resolution": 1,
   "source": "USGS EPQS (3DEP)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "food_access": {
   "tract10": "06041111000",
   "urban": 1,
   "lila_1_10": 0,
   "low_access_1mi": 0,
   "poverty_rate": 11.954391590949601,
   "median_family_income": 107225.0,
   "snap_households": 112.0,
   "pop2010": 5852.0,
   "source": "USDA ERS Food Access Research Atlas 2019 (ArcGIS copy)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "housing_market": {
   "zhvi": {
    "latest": 1484731,
    "month": "2026-09",
    "change_1y": 0.048,
    "change_5y": 0.081
   },
   "zori": {
    "latest": 3865,
    "month": "2026-09",
    "change_1y": 0.078,
    "change_5y": 0.214
   },
   "county_fips": "06041",
   "source": "Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI)"
  },
  "jobs_lodes": {
   "tract20": "06041111002",
   "jobs": 2345,
   "retail_jobs": 205,
   "food_accommodation_jobs": 213,
   "year": 2022,
   "source": "Census LEHD LODES8 WAC 2022 (all jobs, primary and secondary), blocks summed to the 2020 tract",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "listings": {
   "zip": "94901",
   "month": "202609",
   "median_listing_price": 1361000,
   "median_listing_price_yy": 0.0018,
   "active_listing_count": 51,
   "median_days_on_market": 39,
   "price_reduced_share": 0.0976,
   "pending_ratio": 0.4653,
   "source": "Realtor.com Research, inventory core metrics by ZIP (ZCTA at the site point)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "opportunity": {
   "tract10": "06041111000",
   "kfr_p25": 0.4961,
   "jail_p25": 0.0199,
   "kids_count": 424.8829,
   "commuting_zone": "San Francisco",
   "vintage": "children born 1978-83, outcomes measured 2014-15",
   "source": "Opportunity Insights, Opportunity Atlas (Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "peers": {
   "peers": [
    {
     "id": "n-aa92991491",
     "name": "Hilltop Mall",
     "city": "Richmond",
     "state": "CA",
     "score": 6.5,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in CA",
      "17 km away"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-fd7b7e0572",
     "name": "Shops at Tanforan",
     "city": "San Bruno",
     "state": "CA",
     "score": 6.5,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in CA",
      "39 km away"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-1ed1f8ec6b",
     "name": "Shuttered Macy\u2019s location",
     "city": "Corte Madera",
     "state": "CA",
     "score": 6.0,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in CA",
      "5 km away"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-28296958e1",
     "name": "1198 Valencia",
     "city": "San Francisco",
     "state": "CA",
     "score": 6.0,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in CA",
      "26 km away"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-0a0bdeca85",
     "name": "899 Valencia",
     "city": "San Francisco",
     "state": "CA",
     "score": 6.0,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in CA",
      "26 km away"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-9e4beb4b28",
     "name": "Harbor Bay Landing",
     "city": "Alameda",
     "state": "CA",
     "score": 6.0,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in CA",
      "37 km away"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "method": "size, era, strategy, status, type, state, distance"
  },
  "permits": {
   "county": "Marin County",
   "2024": {
    "units_1": 151,
    "units_2_4": 7,
    "units_5plus": 0,
    "value_total": 77463490
   },
   "2023": {
    "units_1": 185,
    "units_2_4": 4,
    "units_5plus": 115,
    "value_total": 123516418
   },
   "retrieved": "2026-10-18"
  },
  "qcew_retail": {
   "county": "06041",
   "year": 2025,
   "establishments": 844,
   "employment": 12979,
   "avg_annual_pay": 58970,
   "lq_employment": 1.19,
   "employment_change_1y": -1.7,
   "source": "BLS QCEW 2025 annual, county, NAICS 44-45 retail trade, private",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "retail_trend": {
   "2012": {
    "estab": 1050,
    "emp": 14286
   },
   "2023": {
    "estab": 923,
    "emp": 14242
   },
   "estab_change": -0.121,
   "emp_change": -0.003,
   "county_fips": "06041"
  },
  "schools": {
   "district": "San Rafael City High School District",
   "district_geoid": "0635110",
   "grades": "09-12",
   "district_vintage": "SY2024-25",
   "public_schools_1mi": 4,
   "schools": [
    "Coleman Elementary",
    "James B. Davidson Middle",
    "Laurel Dell Elementary",
    "Madrone High Continuation"
   ],
   "schools_vintage": "SY2023-24",
   "source": "NCES EDGE",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "storms": {
   "county": "06041",
   "years": "2016-2025",
   "events": 115,
   "by_type": {
    "Flood": 73,
    "Debris Flow": 21,
    "Hail": 11,
    "Flash Flood": 3,
    "Thunderstorm Wind": 3,
    "Heavy Rain": 3,
    "Lightning": 1
   },
   "property_damage_usd": 10870,
   "deaths_direct": 0,
   "injuries_direct": 1,
   "note": "county-typed events only; events logged to forecast zones (CZ_TYPE Z: most winter, heat, flood and coastal events) are not counted",
   "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "traffic": {
   "max_aadt": 27963,
   "trucks_aadt": 1526,
   "road": null,
   "class": "principal arterial",
   "lanes": 4,
   "segments_600m": 38,
   "year": "2024",
   "source": "FHWA HPMS",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  }
 },
 "parcels": [],
 "url": "https://retrofitatlas.org/malls/ca/san-rafael-northgate-town-square/",
 "photo": null,
 "provenance": {}
}