{
 "id": "n-52c5bc7b31",
 "slug": "fredericksburg-greenbrier-shopping-center",
 "type": "strip",
 "name": "Greenbrier Shopping Center",
 "aka": [],
 "city": "Fredericksburg",
 "county": "Fredericksburg city",
 "state": "VA",
 "country": "US",
 "census_division": 5,
 "lat": 38.30012,
 "lon": -77.45715,
 "geocode_method": "nominatim-city",
 "address": null,
 "metro": null,
 "original_use": "retail",
 "year_opened": null,
 "year_closed": null,
 "acres": null,
 "gla_sqft": null,
 "stores_peak": null,
 "levels": null,
 "original_developer": null,
 "original_architect": null,
 "before_notes": "Draft from fxbgadvance.com, model-extracted, unreviewed: Proposed construction of 173 townhomes at a former shopping center that was rezoned in 2017.",
 "strategy": [
  "redevelop"
 ],
 "new_use": [
  "housing"
 ],
 "share_retrofit": null,
 "status": "proposed",
 "year_retrofit": 2017,
 "developer": "NVR, Inc., the parent company of Ryan Homes",
 "architect": null,
 "after_notes": "173 townhomes",
 "narrative": null,
 "narrative_license": null,
 "narrative_source": null,
 "zoning_change": "from Commercial Shopping Center to Commercial Highway",
 "public_subsidy": null,
 "entitlement_year": 2017,
 "planning_notes": null,
 "wikidata_qid": null,
 "wikipedia": null,
 "osm_id": null,
 "verified": "draft",
 "verified_by": null,
 "last_verified": null,
 "last_updated": "2026-10-18",
 "created": "2026-10-18",
 "contributor_name": null,
 "contributor_org": null,
 "contributor_link": null,
 "international": 0,
 "county_fips": "51630",
 "opp_score": 5.0,
 "opp_reasons": [
  "already in play: under construction, approved, or sold to a developer with housing plans",
  "median rent $1,521",
  "housing in the record"
 ],
 "for_sale": 0,
 "distressed": 0,
 "deep": {},
 "elements": [
  {
   "slug": "era-retrofit-2010s",
   "name": "Retrofit 2010s",
   "grp": "era",
   "evidence": "2017",
   "origin": "newtypes-extraction"
  },
  {
   "slug": "status-pipeline",
   "name": "Retrofit in the pipeline",
   "grp": "finance",
   "evidence": "proposed",
   "origin": "newtypes-extraction"
  },
  {
   "slug": "place-shrinking-county",
   "name": "Shrinking county",
   "grp": "place",
   "evidence": "-0.3%",
   "origin": "census-acs"
  },
  {
   "slug": "strategy-redevelop",
   "name": "Redeveloped",
   "grp": "strategy",
   "evidence": "173 townhomes",
   "origin": "record"
  },
  {
   "slug": "use-housing",
   "name": "Housing",
   "grp": "use",
   "evidence": "173 townhomes",
   "origin": "newtypes-extraction"
  }
 ],
 "sources": [
  {
   "id": 6980,
   "site_id": "n-52c5bc7b31",
   "url": "https://www.fxbgadvance.com/p/city-planning-commission-to-consider",
   "title": "City Planning Commission to Consider Eagle Village Rezoning",
   "publisher": "fxbgadvance.com",
   "date": null,
   "quote": "Greenbrier Shopping Center",
   "kind": "news",
   "license": null,
   "retrieved": "2026-10-18"
  },
  {
   "id": 6981,
   "site_id": "n-52c5bc7b31",
   "url": "https://www.fxbgadvance.com/p/city-planning-commission-to-consider",
   "title": "Timeline",
   "publisher": null,
   "date": null,
   "quote": "This land was rezoned from Commercial Shopping Center to Commercial Highway in 2017, when the Area 3 plan was approved.",
   "kind": "quote",
   "license": null,
   "retrieved": "2026-10-18"
  },
  {
   "id": 6982,
   "site_id": "n-52c5bc7b31",
   "url": "https://www.fxbgadvance.com/p/city-planning-commission-to-consider",
   "title": "Timeline",
   "publisher": null,
   "date": null,
   "quote": "In November, the planning department\u2019s technical review committee reviewed a pre-application from NVR, Inc., the parent company of Ryan Homes, which proposed to construct 173 townhomes at the Greenbrier Shopping Center.",
   "kind": "quote",
   "license": null,
   "retrieved": "2026-10-18"
  }
 ],
 "parties": [
  {
   "name": "NVR, Inc., the parent company of Ryan Homes",
   "kind": "developer",
   "role": "developer",
   "year_from": 2017,
   "year_to": null
  }
 ],
 "events": [
  {
   "id": 4053,
   "site_id": "n-52c5bc7b31",
   "date": null,
   "year": 2017,
   "kind": "note",
   "detail": "Land rezoned",
   "share": null,
   "source_id": 6981,
   "verified": "draft"
  },
  {
   "id": 4055,
   "site_id": "n-52c5bc7b31",
   "date": null,
   "year": 2017,
   "kind": "retrofit",
   "detail": "Retrofit: redevelop",
   "share": null,
   "source_id": null,
   "verified": "draft"
  },
  {
   "id": 4054,
   "site_id": "n-52c5bc7b31",
   "date": null,
   "year": 2024,
   "kind": "note",
   "detail": "Pre-application for 173 townhomes reviewed",
   "share": null,
   "source_id": 6982,
   "verified": "draft"
  }
 ],
 "gallery": [],
 "anchors": [],
 "deals": [],
 "owner_of_record": null,
 "ctx": {
  "assessment": {
   "what_happened": "Greenbrier Shopping Center (Fredericksburg, VA) is proposed for redevelopment into 173 townhomes, per NVR, Inc. (Ryan Homes parent). Zoning changed from Commercial Shopping Center to Commercial Highway in 2017. Permits show 37 units approved in 2024 (total value $11.3M), with 82 units in 2023. Events confirm 2017 rezoning and 2024 pre-application for townhomes. Status remains 'proposed' despite active permitting. ",
   "why": "Zoning entitlements secured in 2017; developer active since 2017; housing market shows strong demand (ZORI $1,933/month, 24% 5-year growth).",
   "where_it_stands": "In progress: 2024 permits for 37 units, but full 173-unit project not yet built. Only one peer within 10km (Eagle Village Shopping Center, also proposed).",
   "for_a_planner": [
    "Zoning change approved 2017",
    "Traffic: minor arterial (13,154 ADT, 2 lanes)",
    "Housing market data available (ZHVI $468k, ZORI $1,933)"
   ],
   "for_a_developer": [
    "NVR, Inc. holds development rights",
    "173-unit housing target aligns with local market",
    "Peer cluster limited to 1 nearby project"
   ],
   "risks_and_unknowns": [
    "Full project completion timeline unknown",
    "173-unit target vs. 37 units permitted in 2024 not reconciled",
    "No current construction status beyond 2024 permits"
   ],
   "data_quality": "partial",
   "one_line": "Proposed 173-unit townhome conversion (NVR, Inc.) with 2024 permits for 37 units; zoning approved 2017; housing market demand strong.",
   "model": "qwen3-30b-a3b-64k:latest",
   "machine": "Dell 5820 RTX 3090 (Ollama, qwen3-30b-a3b)",
   "record_sha1": "5034f7648797"
  },
  "cluster": {
   "within_10km": [
    {
     "id": "n-734a311729",
     "name": "Eagle Village Shopping Center",
     "city": "Fredericksburg",
     "status": "proposed",
     "km": 0.0
    }
   ],
   "count_10km": 1,
   "count_25km": 1
  },
  "elevation": {
   "elevation_ft": 39.2,
   "resolution": 1,
   "source": "USGS EPQS (3DEP)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "food_access": {
   "tract10": "51630000100",
   "urban": 1,
   "lila_1_10": 0,
   "low_access_1mi": 0,
   "lapop1share": 6.38397880900846,
   "poverty_rate": 9.82981220657277,
   "median_family_income": 130000.0,
   "snap_households": 141.0,
   "pop2010": 3018.0,
   "source": "USDA ERS Food Access Research Atlas 2019 (ArcGIS copy)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "housing_market": {
   "zhvi": {
    "latest": 467891,
    "month": "2026-09",
    "change_1y": 0.017,
    "change_5y": 0.175
   },
   "zori": {
    "latest": 1933,
    "month": "2026-09",
    "change_1y": 0.046,
    "change_5y": 0.243
   },
   "county_fips": "51630",
   "source": "Zillow Research (ZHVI, ZORI)"
  },
  "jobs_lodes": {
   "tract20": "51630000100",
   "jobs": 3811,
   "retail_jobs": 223,
   "food_accommodation_jobs": 962,
   "year": 2022,
   "source": "Census LEHD LODES8 WAC 2022 (all jobs, primary and secondary), blocks summed to the 2020 tract",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "listings": {
   "zip": "22401",
   "month": "202609",
   "median_listing_price": 584950,
   "median_listing_price_yy": -0.07,
   "active_listing_count": 73,
   "median_days_on_market": 54,
   "price_reduced_share": 0.2648,
   "pending_ratio": 0.4069,
   "source": "Realtor.com Research, inventory core metrics by ZIP (ZCTA at the site point)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "opportunity": {
   "tract10": "51630000100",
   "kfr_p25": 0.4236,
   "jail_p25": 0.0317,
   "kids_count": 126.1576,
   "commuting_zone": "Fredericksburg",
   "vintage": "children born 1978-83, outcomes measured 2014-15",
   "source": "Opportunity Insights, Opportunity Atlas (Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter 2018)",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "peers": {
   "peers": [
    {
     "id": "n-734a311729",
     "name": "Eagle Village Shopping Center",
     "city": "Fredericksburg",
     "state": "VA",
     "score": 6.5,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in VA",
      "0 km away"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-dbd6b92f2f",
     "name": "Courthouse Plaza Shopping Center",
     "city": "Fairfax City",
     "state": "VA",
     "score": 5.0,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in VA"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-e9c006c891",
     "name": "Prosperity Business Campus",
     "city": "Merrifield",
     "state": "VA",
     "score": 4.5,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in VA"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-94abc790d6",
     "name": "Former Signature at West Neck Golf Course",
     "city": "Virginia Beach",
     "state": "VA",
     "score": 4.5,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in VA"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-a67ea0e970",
     "name": "Hunting Hawk Golf Club",
     "city": null,
     "state": "VA",
     "score": 4.5,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in VA"
     ]
    },
    {
     "id": "n-c270fd80aa",
     "name": "1950 Old Gallows Road",
     "city": "Tysons",
     "state": "VA",
     "score": 4.5,
     "why": [
      "same strategy: redevelop",
      "also in VA"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "method": "size, era, strategy, status, type, state, distance"
  },
  "permits": {
   "county": "Fredericksburg(Independent Cit",
   "2024": {
    "units_1": 37,
    "units_2_4": 0,
    "units_5plus": 0,
    "value_total": 11336980
   },
   "2023": {
    "units_1": 82,
    "units_2_4": 0,
    "units_5plus": 0,
    "value_total": 22591435
   },
   "retrieved": "2026-10-18"
  },
  "qcew_retail": {
   "county": "51630",
   "year": 2025,
   "establishments": 234,
   "employment": 3364,
   "avg_annual_pay": 36622,
   "lq_employment": 1.36,
   "employment_change_1y": -1.2,
   "source": "BLS QCEW 2025 annual, county, NAICS 44-45 retail trade, private",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "retail_trend": {
   "2012": {
    "estab": 252,
    "emp": 4147
   },
   "2023": {
    "estab": 246,
    "emp": 4024
   },
   "estab_change": -0.024,
   "emp_change": -0.03,
   "county_fips": "51630"
  },
  "schools": {
   "district": "Fredericksburg City Public Schools",
   "district_geoid": "5101510",
   "grades": "PK-12",
   "district_vintage": "SY2024-25",
   "public_schools_1mi": 1,
   "schools": [
    "Walker-Grant Early Childhood Center"
   ],
   "schools_vintage": "SY2023-24",
   "source": "NCES EDGE",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "storms": {
   "county": "51630",
   "years": "2016-2025",
   "events": 22,
   "by_type": {
    "Thunderstorm Wind": 14,
    "Flood": 7,
    "Hail": 1
   },
   "property_damage_usd": 2090500,
   "deaths_direct": 0,
   "injuries_direct": 0,
   "note": "county-typed events only; events logged to forecast zones (CZ_TYPE Z: most winter, heat, flood and coastal events) are not counted",
   "source": "NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  },
  "traffic": {
   "max_aadt": 13154,
   "trucks_aadt": 142,
   "road": "1",
   "class": "minor arterial",
   "lanes": 2,
   "segments_600m": 39,
   "year": "2024",
   "source": "FHWA HPMS",
   "retrieved": "2026-10-20"
  }
 },
 "parcels": [],
 "url": "https://retrofitatlas.org/strips/va/fredericksburg-greenbrier-shopping-center/",
 "photo": null,
 "provenance": {
  "status": "newtypes-extraction",
  "after_notes": "newtypes-extraction",
  "year_retrofit": "newtypes-extraction",
  "developer": "newtypes-extraction",
  "zoning_change": "newtypes-extraction",
  "state": "census-geocoder"
 }
}