Malls · California
Northgate Town Square
Proposed redevelopment into housing/park/retail; construction underway per permits; strong housing market context; no parcel details or timeline. · summary, model-written
Solid = from the authors' map · outlined = public source · dashed = model-written, not yet reviewed by a person. Tap any value's source label to see where it came from. documented = a quoted excerpt (click to read it) · reported = a source named, no excerpt yet · no source.
Site profile8 elements · what this retrofit is built with · tap a chip for the evidence
Retrofit in the pipeline
This site: …proposed record · all sites with thisCounty lost 10%+ of retail establishments since 2012
This site: -12% census-cbp · all sites with thisCounty typical rent $2,000+
This site: $3,865/mo zillow · all sites with thisShrinking county
This site: -0.6% census-acs · all sites with thisRedeveloped
This site: record · all sites with thisHousing
This site: …new_use field record · all sites with thisPark and open space
This site: …new_use field record · all sites with thisRetail (continued)
This site: …new_use field record · all sites with thisNow
| Status | Retrofit proposedWikipedia no source |
|---|---|
| Strategy | Redevelopment, proposedWikipedia no source |
| New uses | housing, park, retailWikipedia no source |
Site context
| Housing permits, Marin County (CA), 2024 | 0 units in 5+ unit buildings, 7 in 2–4, 151 single-family; 2023: 115 in 5+Census BPS |
|---|---|
| Other atlas sites nearby | 2 within 10 km, 6 within 25 km: Northgate Mall (3.5 km); Shuttered Macy’s location (5.5 km)computed |
| Retail trade in the county, 2025 (BLS QCEW) | 12,979 jobs in 844 establishments; average annual pay $58,970; employment location quotient 1.19; employment -1.7% on the yearBLS QCEW 2025, NAICS 44-45, private |
| Jobs located in the tract, 2022 | 2,345 jobs; 205 in retail trade, 213 in accommodation and food (workplace blocks summed to tract 06041111002)Census LEHD LODES8 WAC 2022 |
| Upward mobility (Opportunity Atlas, 2010 tract) | children of low-income (25th percentile) families reached the 50th income percentile as adults; 2.0% incarcerated at the 2010 count (425 children in the sample); born 1978–83, measured 2014–15Opportunity Insights |
| Food access (USDA FARA 2019, 2010 tract) | not a low-access tract at 1 mile; poverty rate 12.0%; median family income $107,225; 112 SNAP householdsUSDA ERS |
| Schools | San Rafael City High School District (09-12); 4 public schools within 1 mile: Coleman Elementary; James B. Davidson Middle; Laurel Dell Elementary; Madrone High ContinuationNCES EDGE |
| Elevation | 70 ft above sea level at the site pointUSGS 3DEP |
| Storm events in the county, 2016-2025 | 115 county-logged events: 73 flood, 21 debris flow, 11 hail, 3 flash flood; $10,870 property damage reported; forecast-zone events (most flood, winter and heat) not countedNOAA Storm Events |
| Homes for sale in ZIP 94901, 2026-09 | median list price $1,361,000 (+0.2% on the year); 51 active listings; median 39 days on market; 10% with a price cutRealtor.com Research |
| Retail trade in the county, 2012 to 2023 | 923 establishments (-12%); 14,242 jobs (-0%)Census CBP |
| Housing market in the county | typical home value $1.5M (+5% 1 yr, +8% 5 yr); typical rent $3,865/mo (+8% 1 yr), 2026-09Zillow Research |
| Traffic on the busiest road within 600 m (2024) | 27,963 vehicles a day (principal arterial, 4 lanes); 1,526 trucks; 38 counted segmentsFHWA HPMS |
Summary, model-written
Northgate Town Square (San Rafael, CA) is proposed for redevelopment into housing, park, and retail. Status is 'proposed' with 'verified' as 'draft'.
Why. Record states it's 'already in play: under construction, approved, or sold to a developer with housing plans' (per opp_reasons). Housing market shows strong projected ZHVI ($1.48M) and ZORI ($3,865) for 2026. Nearby context includes Northgate Mall (3.5km, partial status) and Shuttered Macy’s (5.5km, proposed).
Where it stands. Permits show 151 housing units approved in 2024 (Marin County). Retail establishments declined 12.1% (2012–2023) but employment stable. Traffic: 27,963 ADT on principal arterial (4 lanes).
For a planner
- Peer analysis shows 6 similar redevelopments in CA (closest: Shuttered Macy’s, 5km).
- No parcel size or exact timeline provided.
- Retail decline noted but no current vacancy rate.
For a developer
- Housing demand supported by high ZHVI/ZORI projections.
- Construction activity underway (2024 permits).
- No ownership or financing details in record.
What we do not know yet
- Status 'proposed' with no approval date.
- No current tenant mix or lease terms.
- Traffic data lacks pedestrian/bike infrastructure details.
Generated by qwen3-30b-a3b-64k:latest on Dell 5820 RTX 3090 (Ollama, qwen3-30b-a3b) from the fields, parcels, deals and context layers on this page, with no outside knowledge. It is regenerated when the record changes and has not been checked by a person. How it is made.
Similar sites
- Hilltop Mall, Richmond, CA · Malls · same strategy: redevelop; also in CA; 17 km away
- Shops at Tanforan, San Bruno, CA · Malls · same strategy: redevelop; also in CA; 39 km away
- Shuttered Macy’s location, Corte Madera, CA · Big boxes · same strategy: redevelop; also in CA; 5 km away
- 1198 Valencia, San Francisco, CA · Gas stations · same strategy: redevelop; also in CA; 26 km away
Elsewhere on the web
Search images: Google · Bing · Commons · references: ULI case studies · Google Scholar
Multifamily screen
- already in play: under construction, approved, or sold to a developer with housing plans
- median rent $2,584
- housing in the record
Inputs: record fields (size, status) and county Census ACS 2018–2023 figures (growth, rent). How the points work. Not a recommendation.
History and original facts
| County | Marin County |
|---|---|
| Census division | 9 · Pacific |
| Notes | Draft from cityofsanrafael.org, model-extracted, unreviewed: Northgate Town Square, a former mall in San Rafael, is proposed to be redeveloped into a mixed-use hub with 1,422 residential units, retail, and public spaces. |
Not yet recorded: acres, GLA, year opened, original developer, what is there now, retrofit year. Know it? Tell us.
Sources
- Northgate Town Square Redevelopment Officially Moves Forward ...
1 quoted sentence
Northgate Town Square